Regarding Bill Simmons and Blake Griffin

Let me preface this by saying that for the most part, I enjoy Simmons' work.  He's an extremely funny guy and does know a lot about the game.  That being said, he does tend to make some outlandish statements sometimes. Ok, a lot of times.

Today, he made a few of those statements regarding Blake Griffin via a post at ESPN and on Twitter.

Here are his claims about Griffin, whom he rightly calls a beast:

• He would've been the 3rd best player on Team USA this summer.
• He's already the best finisher of any big guy in the league.
• He's already the second-best rebounder in the league behind Dwight Howard.
• He's already one of the 5 best PFs in the league.
• He's the best rookie to enter the league since LeBron
• He's plays with reckless abandon and is extremely exciting to watch

My first reaction is that two of those statements are true and the others are false.  I had the chance to watch Griffin in Sacramento when they blew out the Kings, and as I mentioned, he looked amazing. More than amazing in fact, and the box score backs it up.  But even with that I still have some trouble with Simmons statements.  Do his arguments have merit, or don't they?

The statements I do believe are true are the first and last ones.  He probably would have been the 3rd or possibly even 2nd best player for Team USA this summer, especially with the dearth of go-to big men on the team, and he would've made mincemeat of most of the Euro bigs.  I assure you that if he had played this summer, all of the Rookie of the Year buzz would be on Grffin right now, which is because of that last statement: He's extremely fun to watch.  He plays like Gerald Wallace in a big man's body, flying everywhere, and at times just looking dominant.  Unfortunately, this leaves him very susceptible to injury, and he's already suffered a season ending one before.  I sincerely hope he doesn't ever have to go through that again.  It would be like if all of Leonardo Da Vinci's work had been lost in a fire and all we had were a few old history books describing how awesome they were.

Now lets move on to the claims I have a beef with.  The first is that he's already the best finisher of any big guy in the league.  Let's take a look at Griffin's work so far in preseason:

MPG	PPG	FG%	FT%	RPG	ORPG	APG	BLK	STL	TO	PF
28.4	17.4	.628	.579	12.0	3.0	1.8	1.4	1.8	2.0	3.2

Those are amazing numbers, especially for a rookie.  Granted, its preseason, and also a small sample size (5 games) but Griffin is going up against quality NBA big men each night (He's played against Aldridge, Cousins, Landry, Lee, Biedrins, Duncan, Blair, and Nene).

Let's also take a look at some of Griffin's Advanced Statistics for this preseason:

TS%	ORB%	DRB%	TRB%	USG%
0.642	11.5%	35.2%	23.4%	25.24%

Extremely efficient scoring, Rodman-esque rebounding numbers, and a pretty high but not too high Usage.  Take in mind that this is a very small sample size, and also the fact that so many players are shaking off rust.  But so is Griffin.  He hasn't played in a whole year.  If he can maintain this kind of production throughout the season, he should be the shoo-in for Rookie of the Year.  Using these stats lets take a look at the statements that I had a beef with earlier.

Griffin's TS% and FG% would have put him ahead of any big man or player in the league last year (Dwight led the league in FG% at .612 and Nene and Dwight tied in TS% with .630).  Given the small sample size, and the fact that its preseason and he's not going up against quite the competition he would be in regular season, I see these percentages taking quite a hit for Griffin in the regular season, but probably not too much.  He likely won't finish on top, as Simmons suggests by saying he's the best finisher in the league, but he could be close.


(UPDATE: Jordan Sams of Liberty Ballers argued that TS% doesn't show how good of a finisher someone was.  As such, I've looked at the shot charts for each game, and Griffin has made 24-29 FGs (82.7%) from 0-6 feet in his 5 games, while taking 51 FGA.  I'd say that makes him a damn good finisher.)

As for rebounding, these stats are more likely to translate to the regular season because the minute you watch Griffin play, you can see he makes a ridiculous effort to crash the boards.  Last year Marcus Camby led the league in DRB% with 31.9%, Ben Wallace led in ORB% with 14.1% and Camby led in TRB% with 22.2%. Camby, Howard and Dalembert were the only ones to finish with TRB% above 20%.  I expect that if Griffin can stay healthy, he can do the same.

Simmons also mentions that Griffin is the 5th best Power Forward in the league behind Pau, Dirk, Bosh and Duncan.  That means Bill considers Griffin better than guys like Amar'e, Boozer, Love, KG, and Z-Bo.  That might be a little far-fetched right now, but if he can average what he's averaging in Pre-Season all year?  It's a possibility.

So Simmons thoughts on Griffin don't seem so crazy to me now.  But is he the best rookie to enter the league since LeBron?  That's a tougher question to answer, as there have been quite a few amazing talents to come into the league since LeBron (Chris Paul, Kevin Durant, Derrick Rose, Tyreke Evans, John Wall).  That answer won't be for a few, hopefully healthy, years.

Whatever you take from this, one incontrovertible fact remains; Blake Griffin is a fantastic player and a joy to watch.