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| Is it any wonder this guy once got kicked out of the league for substance abuse? |
2009-10 Record: 53-29
Additions: Masai Ujiri (GM) George Karl (return from battle with cancer), Al Harrington (FA), Shelden Williams (FA), Melvin Ely (FA), Eric Boateng (FA), Gary Forbes (FA)
Subtractions: Mark Warkentien (GM), Malik Allen, Johan Petro, Joey Graham, Coby Karl, Brian Butch
Talk about a team in disarray. Perhaps the second biggest story of the off-season after LeBron's Decision has been Carmelo Anthony's desire to leave the Nuggets so he can play in a bigger market, or with other stars. This has led to rumors of Melo to almost everywhere, but mostly just New York, New Jersey and Chicago. Melo doesn't want to wait to join a different team when he's a Free Agent, particularly because of the uncertainty of the new CBA. He instead wants to get a trade and extension, so that way he can be where he wants and get his money too. Unlike Paul in New Orleans, Melo does actually have some leverage here, because he can simply leave for nothing at the end of the season, and if Denver tries to trade him to a team he doesn't want to go to, he can simply refuse to sign an extension. All in all its a big mess, and a tough task for new GM Masai Ujiri to handle. I do believe that Carmelo will be traded sometime before the deadline, but to who and for how much is hard to gauge with all the rumors flying about.
So where does this leave the rest of the team? Well, pretty much the same as last year, although without Kenyon Martin for a while (knee injury will sideline him for a few months), and George Karl back on the sidelines. They were sort of stagnant this offseason, although they did sign Al Harrington, who doesn't really fit this team. He needs the ball in his hands a lot, and he shoots often. He's basically a worse version of Carmelo, older, and inexplicably locked up for 5 years. Just another odd signing in a summer full of them.
Chauncey Billups and Nene Hilario's future with the team also likely hinges on Carmelo. Billups is getting up there in age (34), but he still managed to have a career year in PPG. Nene also had a career year, playing 82 games for the first time, and leading the entire league in TS% for the second year in a row. He also led the league in Offensive Rating. He's an exceptionally efficient offensive player and a decent defender. If either Billups or Nene were made available in the wake of a Post-Melo trade, there would be many suitors.
Denver also has a couple nice young players that should be sticking around for a while. Ty Lawson was a steal at the 18th spot last year (bought from the Timberwolves), and he handled the backup point duties for the Nuggets extremely well. His speed brought a change of pace from Billups, and he scored efficiently (60% TS%). Arron Afflalo had a bit of a breakout season as well, earning the starting shooting guard spot, and shot the ball really well (43.4% from three). He's a developing defender, and you get the feeling that the Jazz or Spurs would love to have him in their lineup guarding wings and knocking down corner threes all season.
The Nuggets also have a couple nice assets in the expiring contracts of Kenyon Martin and J.R. Smith. Martin is sidelined till the new year, but Smith could be a useful pickup for a team needing a scoring punch off the bench. He'll be in a contract year as well, so he might actually keep the crazy dialed down a little bit this season. No more thinking airballs are made baskets, ok J.R.? (I have to link to that video every time J.R. Smith's name comes up)
The Nuggets are in a good situation if forced to switch gears from contender to rebuilding project. They have plenty of assets (Carmelo being the biggest obviously) to acquire young players and draft picks, and they should have some financial flexibility (depending on the CBA negotiations).
What if the Nuggets do keep Melo through the season though (I personally think that'd be a mistake, simply because the most you could get then would be a Trade Exception in a sign and trade, and that's if Anthony wants to do that)? Well they'll still probably be one of the upper tier playoff teams in the West, and not much else. They'll probably go to the second round and not much further. I don't see this team challenging the Lakers like they did a couple years ago. The West has evolved and changed, and the Nuggets haven't.
Perhaps George Karl's return will re-invigorate this team, but I can't help but feel down on the Nuggets. It'll be a while before the dust settles on this whole Carmelo business, and it might be better for Nuggets fans if it was sooner rather than later.
No-Melo Trade Projected Win Range: 45-50
Yes-Melo Trade Projected Win Range: 30-35
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