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| We gave Joe Johnson how much money?!? |
2009-10 Record: 53-29
Additions: Larry Drew (Coach), Jordan Crawford (Draft), Pape Sy (Draft), Josh Powell (FA), Etan Thomas (FA)
Subtractions: Mike Woodson (Coach), Randolph Morris, Joe Smith, Mario West
The Hawks have a problem. They're good, perhaps really good, but they're not great. They have some really nice pieces, but they don't have that one guy who can lift them over the top, that one superstar to build around. Joe Johnson, despite being a very, very good player, is not that guy. Al Horford and Josh Smith aren't that guy. Josh Powell is definitely not that guy.
Yet the Hawks continue to spend seemingly just to spend. This summer they gave Joe Johnson a 6 year, $119 million contract, right after he had one of the worst playoff performances in recent memory (He averaged 12.8 points on 30.2% from the field as the Hawks got swept by the Magic). Johnson will be 29 to start the season, and is already likely on the downside of his career. Add in a possible lockout year that could see Salary caps shrink, and a year of productivity lost, and the contract looks even worse. The Hawks already have big contracts in Josh Smith and Marvin Williams locked up, and Al Horford is going to be up for an extension/new contract soon as well, and he deserves one. I understand that without Johnson, the Hawks aren't as good, and that to keep him, they had to overpay. But with him, they're stuck where they are, and lack the financial flexibility to change, unless you want to give away one of those other big contract players.
Enough of the negative though, because the Hawks do have some of my favorite players in the league, Al Horford especially. Horford is an extremely underrated defender, and is coming into his own as an offensive player as well. Hopefully new coach Larry Drew changes the offense up a bit to give Horford a bigger role, instead of Mike Woodson's offense in which the gameplan was "Give it to Joe or Jamal and get out of the way". Horford looks like a good bet to make the All-Star game again, especially if he gets more touches (only 17.6% Usage Rate).
Josh Smith is also a stellar player, coming into his own last season when he decided to wise up and stop shooting three pointers (471 3PA in his first 5 years on a 26.6%, only 7 last year), and instead focus on playing solid defense and being more of a team player. Last year saw him achieve career highs in True Shooting %, Total Rebounding %, Assist %, Steal %, Offensive/Defensive Rating and PER. He's an extremely versatile player, and he probably should've made the All-Star team last year. If he manages to trump even last year's improvements in productivity, he'll be a shoo-in, and he'll give Dwight Howard a run for the Defensive Player of the Year.
The Hawks supporting cast is solid. Mike Bibby is reaching the end of his useful career, but he can still shoot well from range and he doesn't need the ball in his hands much. Jeff Teague didn't get to see much playing time behind Bibby last year, but that should change this year as the Hawks begin to groom him to eventually replace Bibby. Jamal Crawford was stellar last year off the bench, and the Hawks are wisely not listening to his extension demands, because although he's a prolific bench scorer, that need can be filled by cheaper players and younger ones too, like say perhaps, Jordan Crawford, the rookie from Xavier they drafted late in the first round this year. His game reminds me a lot of Jamal's (no relation) in that he can be a bit streaky, but he can also fill it up like crazy.
The Hawks have a couple of other wing players worth noting. Marvin Williams is a conundrum because he keeps showing that he can be great, but he never does it consistently. Dan Devine put it wonderfully in BDL's Hawks Preview: "Remind us what everybody saw in you five years ago, and do it more often than a half-dozen times a season." Maurice Evans is an expiring contract, but he's been more than serviceable and adds even more depth to this Hawks team, something they aren't lacking.
The one thing the Hawks really do lack is size inside. Other than Horford (who is playing out of position as a Center), the Hawks don't really have any big men. Zaza Pachulia is alright, but he's not anything more than a decent backup. Their other options? Josh Powell can't rebound or defend, although he has a nice jumper, and I have no idea why Jason Collins is still in the NBA. Seriously, the guy has made over $30 million in 9 years in the NBA with a career PER of 7.3 (15 is considered average). No wonder the Hawks were seriously considering Shaq earlier this summer. This lack of size is their biggest weakness against teams like the Magic, Celtics and Lakers. With that said though, the Hawks might be one of the few teams that could knock out the Heat in a playoff series. Horford, Johnson, and Smith could matchup 1-on-1 with Wade, James and Bosh defensively without doubling, and Atlanta's depth is much better. It'd be an interesting series to say the least.
Larry Drew might end up being a better option for this team than Mike Woodson, but I think he might need some time to get used to. Still, I can't see this team doing much damage past the second round in the playoffs barring injuries to other teams and a perfect season for the Hawks. They'd also likely need to trade or sign (Dampier?) a big man that could stand up to the Howards and Gasols of the league. Regardless, they'll continue to be a tough matchup for most teams each night.
Projected Win Range: 50-55
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