Michael Beasley: Improved Player or Hot Streak?

These are the kind of shots Beasley was hitting against Sacramento.

During the past four games, Michael Beasley has averaged 32.5 PPG on 54.5% shooting from the field and 58.3% from downtown.  He eclipsed his previous career high of 30 twice during this past week (42 against the Kings, 35 against New York).

But is Michael Beasley doing anything different to score all these points?


The thing you have to look at is shot selection here.  Beasley has always been pretty effective around the basket, knocking in about 60+ % of his shots.  Yet he's never opted to take it inside, instead shooting long jumpers.  In the NBA, there are two really efficient shots:  the shot at the rim is the easiest to make, and also an attempt there is the kind most likely to send you to the Free Throw Line.  The other efficient shot (if you can make it) is the three pointer, since its worth one more point than a regular jumper.  The least efficient shot in the NBA is the jumpshot from 16-23 feet, since its the farthest away you have to shoot the basketball without getting that extra point the three gives you.  Historically, this is where a majority of Beasley's shots have come, despite only a FG% of about 43.5% from there.

Has anything changed during Beasley's recent string of great games?  Not really.  In his 42 point game against Sacramento, Sacramento actually did a decent job of keeping him on the outside and forcing him to hit jumpers. Unfortunately for the Kings, Beasley just could not miss.  He shot 10-15 from 16-23 feet, and 3-5 from 10-15 feet (a better shot).  One big thing he was able to do differently in this game was get to the line.  He wasn't able to get much going inside (3-9 within 10 feet, including 0-1 at the rim), but he was able to get a few trips to the line from attacking the basket (7-10 from the line).  It was only the third time in his career that he'd gotten to the line 10 or more times.  Against New York, he was better around the basket (5-6 at the rim), but the lion's share of the points again came at 16-23 feet.

During this hot streak, he's shot an insane 61.8% from 16-23 feet.  That kind of effort just isn't sustainable, and it started to show against Charlotte, where he only shot 2-6 from that range.  Let's take a look at a couple other dynamite scorers who average most of their shot attempts from 16-23 feet: Carmelo Anthony (data for Anthony's shot selection only exists from 2007 on) and Kevin Durant.  Anthony has averaged 6.6 shots per game from there and hit about 40.8 %, while Durant has also averaged 6.6 shots per game from there and hit about 38.5%.  Yet the reason they're both superstar scorers is because of what else they do.  Anthony takes it to the basket even more than he shoots from range (about 7.5 times a game), makes a good percentage, and also gets to the line a lot because of it (7.8 career FTA per game).  Durant shoots more threes (about 3.4 a game) as well as taking it to the rim and getting to the line (7.4 career FTA per game).

If Beasley is going to become an elite scorer, and not just in spot minutes, he needs to incorporate something other than that long jumper into his game.  He's probably actually a better shooter than Anthony, so maybe a couple of those long jumpers a game could change to threes, and he's also really strong (he played PF in college) so taking it to the basket more should also be priority.  But continuing to shoot a whole lot of 16-23 footers is not a recipe for long term success.