Thursday, August 5, 2010

Unsung Heroes: Southeast Division

This is like a Rorschach Test. What do you see?

Players are often described as being "overrated" or "underrated".  In the NBA, this often translates to overrated players being players that are good, but vastly overpaid for their abilities, or who get more media exposure than some other players, while underrated often means a player who is making a pittance for his current production (funnily enough, underrated players tend to become labeled overrated when they get new, bigger contracts).

I do think there are some underrated players though, players that aren't as widely known for their roles on their team, who don't often get mentioned for their contributions but are indeed integral parts of their team.

Over the next week or so, I'll be looking at each team to find one "underrated" player for each team in the league.  Tuesday, we looked at the Atlantic Divsion, and yesterday the Central.  After the jump, we travel to the Southeast to finish our Eastern Conference trip.



Orlando Magic: 
Jameer Nelson, PG
2009-10 Stats: 28.6 MPG, 12.6 PPG, .449 FG%, .381 3P%, .845 FT%, 3.0 RPG, 5.4 APG, .7 SPG, 2.1 TO, 2.3 PF
Salary: 3 years left at $23.4 million (Last Year is a Player Option)

Jameer Nelson had a slight drop-off in the level of his play last year, coming back from the shoulder injury that kept him out of almost half the previous season (during which he won an All-Star berth that he unfortunately didn't get to play in), and most of the playoffs, but his importance to this team featuring several bigger names is often overlooked.  It's obviously Dwight Howard's team, but you also tend to hear Rashard Lewis and Vince Carter (and in the past Hedo Turkoglu) spoken of as the teams best players.  But as Jameer goes, so do the Magic.  His game is a perfect complement on a team that values 3 point shooters, and he handles the ball and finds his teammates well enough.  Hopefully this season he can find his 08-09 groove again, and if he does, the Eastern Conference better watch out.

Atlanta Hawks:
Al Horford, C
2009-10 Stats: 35.1MPG, 14.5 PPG, .551 FG%, .789 FT%, 9.9 RPG, 2.3 APG, .7 SPG, 1.1 BLK, 1.5 TO, 2.8 PF
Salary: 1 year left at $5.4 million (After which he can become a RFA)

Not nearly enough attention is given to Al Horford.  On his own team, most of the attention is given to leading scorer Joe Johnson (who was just given one of the worst contracts in NBA history), and the explosive Josh Smith, but it is Horford who has the biggest impact on the team when he's on the court (Atlanta's offense is 7.4 pp100 better with him on, and the defense is 3.4 pp100 better) and he's only going to be playing his 4th year too.  At only 6'10, Horford is an undersized C (If he ever got to play next to a legit Center, look out world), but he's far from disadvantaged.  He is one of the best post defenders in the game regardless of his size, (ranking first in defensive efficiency among NBA PFs and Cs according to Synergy Sports, holding his opponents to .75 points per possession), and he's also a darn good perimeter defender too. Yet he didn't receive one single vote for NBA Defensive Player of the Year, and only received one vote for either of the All-NBA defensive teams.  Horford is no slouch on the offensive end either, being extremely efficient (a TS% of .594 last year), doesn't turn the ball over much, and had an offensive rating of 121.  He doesn't get nearly the amount of touches he should though (probably because of ball-dominant players like Joe Johnson and Jamal Crawford) ranking 8th on his team in Usage (at only 17.6%).  If it were up to me, I'd give Johnson's contract to Horford instead.

Miami Heat:
Udonis Haslem, F/C
2009-10 Stats: 27.9 MPG, 9.9 PPG, .494 FG%, .762 FT%, 8.1 RPG, .7 APG, 1.0 TO, 2.2 PF
Salary: 5 years left at $20.3 million (Final Year is a Player Option)

Like Horford above, Haslem is undersized for his position (primarily plays PF, but can and has played Center).  Despite not being a shot blocker, he's still a very good and very underrated man defender in the post.  He held is opponents to a PER lower than his as both a Center and a PF.  He's also a very good rebounder (24.8 DRB% last year), and doesn't make any mistakes on the court. Udonis is a type of glue guy big men almost every playoff team wants, and he'll make a great backup to Chris Bosh this season.  He's never been the type of guy to look for his own offense (career 15.7 USG%), so all he'll have to do now is come in, try to prevent his guy from scoring, and if he does get an open look on offense, to convert.  That's how its been for Udonis over the last few years, but now with the team Miami's built, his contributions will make much more of an impact.

Charlotte Bobcats:
Nazr Mohammed, C
2009-10 Stats: 17.0 MPG, 7.9 PPG, .553 FG%, .648 FT%, 5.2 RPG, .7 BLK, .9 TO, 1.8 PF
Salary: 1 year left at $6.9 million

In years past, I might have given this spot to Gerald Wallace, but he got plenty of attention last year (with a stellar year too) by gaining an All-Star berth and leading his franchise to the playoffs for the first time.  But another key player for Charlotte last season was journeyman Nazr Mohammad, who ended up being near the top of the team in Offensive and Defensive Rating, and leading the team in PER (at 19.6).  Mohammed played pretty great defense at Center too, holding his opponent to a PER per 48 minutes of almost 6 points worse than him.  Nazr made a lot of impact on the boards, especially the offensive end (14.2 ORB%), and he's a decent shot blocker too.  On offense he's very efficient (.578 TS% last year), and handles the ball well (unlike teammate Tyson Chandler who had a 26.0 TOV% last year. Ouch).  It remains to be seen if last year was a fluke for Nazr, or if he's still capable of providing these meaningful contributions to the team.  With the loss of some Center depth, we'll no doubt find out, as he'll likely be given more time as a result.

Washington Wizards:
Javale McGee, C
2009-10 Stats: 16.1 MPG, 6.4 PPG, .508 FG%, .638 FT%, 4.1 RPG, 1.7 BLK, .9 TO, 2.0 PF
Salary: 2 years left at $4 million (Last year is a team option)

Washington was a very hard one for me.  A huge chunk of the team (including the player I would have put here, Brendan Haywood) was traded at the deadline and the team looks very different from where it did to start last year.  It was between Nick Young, Andray Blatche, and Javale McGee.  Blatche is talented, but he's a poor teammate, a poor rebounder, and tends to be a ballhog.  Young is well, young, and he hasn't really fulfilled the Wizards expectations of him yet.  In the end I went with McGee, who although is imperfect (his defense outside of shotblocking is bad), has quite a few bright spots, and who could receive the biggest positive impact from the arrival of John Wall.

McGee is an explosive, athletic, shotblocking center.  He hasn't yet shown he's been able to handle heavy minutes yet (mostly because of foul trouble, and he also suffers from asthma).  He is slightly above average as an offensive rebounder, but below average as a defensive rebounder.  On offense, Javale performs best around the rim, although he has the potential to extend his range.  Shotblocking is where he dominated though, with an absolutely ridiculous 8% Block Rate last year (leading the league).  In Summer League this year, McGee dominated in 4 games, averaging 19.5 points on almost 70% from the field, as well as 9.3 boards and a block in almost 29.0 MPG.  That's an extremely positive sign for the Wiz, who could have a lethal one-two punch of the future in John Wall and McGee, a better version of what New Orleans had in Chris Paul and Tyson Chandler.

***

Tomorrow, we'll move on to the Western Conference and take a look at the Southwest Division.

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