New Orleans Needs to Stand Up to Chris Paul

So the latest NBA news is that Chris Paul, perhaps the best point guard in the league, wants out of New Orleans as reported by Ken Berger for CBS Sports.

According to the report (which isn't completely new, rumors of Paul wanting out have been surfacing ever since Byron Scott was let go), Paul is frustrated at management for failing to build a contender around him, and wants to follow in LeBron James footsteps (it should be noted that he just joined LeBron's marketing company LRMR) and join a team with another superstar, preferably the Lakers, Knicks, or Magic.

Troubling news for the Hornets Franchise, no?



New Orleans is going through a bit of a management revamping period, which started with George Shinn planning on selling the Hornets to long-time Minority Owner Gary Chouest, firing GM Jeff Bower (who started out with the Hornets by drafting Paul) last week, hiring Monty Williams as a 1st time head coach, and just the other day, hiring San Antonio Spurs Executive Dell Demps as their new GM.  Bower and Hornets President Hugh Weber had made it clear that they were NOT looking to trade Paul to anyone, but the recent moves suggest that their mentality might be changing, especially if Paul becomes adamant.

The difference between Paul wanting out of New Orleans and James wanting out of Cleveland though is vast, mainly because James was an unrestricted free agent, and Paul is still under contract for 3 more years.  That 3rd year is a Player Option for almost $18 million that he can, and if this report is true, likely will opt out of, but that still leaves 2 years where he can't simply leave.

New Orleans doesn't have to listen to Paul, and they shouldn't adhere to his (rumored) demands for quite a few reasons, number one of them being that finding fair value for a young superstar like Chris Paul is going to be very hard and likely impossible.

Another reason would be that the Hornets would be selling low.  Because of his injury last year (which caused him to miss 37 games last year), and the emergence of rookie PG Darren Collison, Paul's value is at an all-time low.  The Hornets would not be doing themselves any favors in trying to look for a trade now, especially not to those supposed teams that Paul wants to go to.

Los Angeles? What do they have that New Orleans would want?  All the draft picks that could be sent to them in the near future are going to be in the late 1st or 2nd round, they're over the cap so it has to be an even money trade, and they have no young assets to give up.

Orlando?  Orlando is a little better in that they have a few assets like Gortat, Ryan Anderson, Brandon Bass, Jameer Nelson, Mickael Pietrus and Daniel Orton, but that trade will have to be even money as well, and the draft picks will again be late in each round.

New York?  New York is the first place that has assets that might interest New Orleans, and cap space so that the Hornets take less cash coming in.  But any future 1st round draft picks sent in the deal will have to be pretty far in the future because of all the picks New York has sent out in recent years, and the NBA rule stating you can't trade your 1st rounder in consecutive years.

And what has been the standard asking price for Franchise players in recent NBA history? Here are some trades of notable NBA talent on the par of where Chris Paul is now that was traded:

2007 - Kevin Garnett traded from the Minnesota Timberwolves to the Boston Celtics for Ryan Gomes, Gerald Green, Al Jefferson, Theo Ratliff, Sebastian Telfair, a 2009 1st round draft pick (Wayne Ellington), and a 2009 1st round draft pick (Jonny Flynn)

2004 - Tracy McGrady traded from the Orlando Magic with Reece Gaines, Juwan Howard, and Tyronn Lue to the Houston Rockets for Kelvin Cato, Steve Francis, and Cuttino Mobley

2004 - Shaquille O'Neal traded from the Los Angeles Lakers to the Miami Heat for Caron Butler, Lamar Odom, Brian Grant, a 2006 1st round draft pick (Jordan Farmar), and a 2007 2nd round draft pick (Renaldus Seibutis)

2001 - Jason Kidd traded from the Phoenix Suns with Chris Dudley to the New Jersey Nets for Stephon Marbury, Johnny Newman, and Soumalia Samake

1998 - Chris Webber traded from the Washington Wizards to the Sacramento Kings for Mitch Richmond and Otis Thorpe

1997* - A 2003 1st round draft pick (Darko Milicic) was traded from the Vancouver Grizzlies to the Detroit Pistons for Otis Thorpe

*Just in case David Kahn was reading this. Hi David!

How did these teams fare after trading their superstar?

Minnesota was 32-50 in Garnett's last year. They haven't reached that record since.  Orlando was 21-61 in Orlando's last year, and have had a better record every year since, and is now one of the best teams in the league.  The Lakers were 56-26 in Shaq's last year, losing in the Finals.  It took them 4 years to get back to the same level (It helped that the Lakers had a resident superstar in Bryant too, a luxury the Hornets do not have).  The Suns won 51 games in Kidd's last year, and then after 4 years were better than before.  The Wizards were 42-40 in Webber's last year, and it took them 7 years to get to a similar level.

But thats just one side of the coin. How did the teams who got the superstar do?

Boston has been to the finals twice since acquiring Garnett, and won the Championship once (after a 22 year drought).  Houston has been to the Playoffs in 4 of 6 seasons after acquiring McGrady, compared to just 2 of 6 before acquiring him.  The Miami Heat won their first ever NBA title in Shaq's 2nd year on the team, after an Eastern Conference Finals appearance in his 1st year.  The Nets went to the Finals for two straight years after acquiring Kidd, and got into the 2nd round in 3 of the 4 years after that.  The Kings had been to the Playoffs just twice in all their time in Sacramento, and after acquiring Webber had an 8 consecutive season stretch of getting to the playoffs, and almost to the NBA Finals.  Vancouver's NBA team moved all the way to Memphis from the shame of having traded Darko away.

So obviously it looks like most of these trades are fairly lopsided in the favor of the team getting the superstar.  So why should New Orleans be in a hurry to trade theirs?

The best thing the Hornets can do is try to use this year to improve the team and show Paul that they can be a force in the league with him as the centerpiece.  Let him work with Monty Williams and try to convince him to stay.  Offer him an extension next season.  If he's still balking, thats when you want to consider trading him for some young pieces, perhaps in a package deal that gets rid of a bad contract like Okafor's.

But for now New Orleans shouldn't even entertain the idea of trading Paul, as much as he may want it.  A lot can change in a year or two.  Look what happened with the Lakers when Kobe Bryant asked for a trade after getting frustrated with losing. They ignored him, and ended up acquiring Pau Gasol and some other pieces for him to play with and the team started winning again.  Winning cures all ills for NBA players, and Paul is likely no different.  The Hornets have some nice pieces, and still managed to win 37 games without their star for half the season.

Yes Paul can opt out in two years and leave for nothing.  That's a risk New Orleans has to take, if they want a chance at keeping him.

Dell Demps, welcome to New Orleans. You have your work cut out for you.