Wednesday, November 10, 2010

Roy Hibbert is the Next Big Thing

Confession time.  For the past two years, I have been completely down on Roy Hibbert.  I thought he was too slow, too foul prone, and way too poor of a rebounder to ever become a great center.  There were some good things though.  His post-game showed some promise, and he has always been a good shotblocker, but I never saw him as more than simply an above average option at Center, and probably not that for a contending team.

My whole perspective has changed through these first six games of the season though.  Hibbert looks like a completely different player, and for the better.  Over the summer Larry Bird asked his friend Bill Walton to work with him, and Walton must've done something right (credit to Hibbert too for putting the work in).  He's slimmed down, reportedly losing 23 pounds in the offseason, which has given him more mobility and durability on the court.

The most impressive thing about Hibbert to me has been his passing.  He's always been an above average passer for a big man, but this year he's on another level.  Through 6 games, he has the second highest assist rate (19.7%) of any player 6'9 or taller that has played at least 15 minutes per game.  He's second only to Pau Gasol.   His height allows him to see a lot of the court, and the Pacers are able to run a lot of offense through him in the high post.

He's also really improved his rebounding, on the defensive end especially.  He's never been bad on the offensive end, but on the defensive end, his rebound rate was pretty atrocious for a center.  He was worse than guys like Andrea Bargnani, Nenad Krstic, Spencer Hawes, and barely better than Hedo Turkoglu.  This year he's on par with guys like Pau Gasol and Andray Blatche, still not a great rebounder, but finally respectable.

Speaking of the defensive end, this is where Hibbert has shown the most improvement to me.  Because of his increased mobility, he's able to move his feet quicker and thus defend better, leading to less fouls and more blocks.  He's fouling less per game now in about 32 minutes a game, than he was last year in 25 minutes a game.  He's also about doubled his blocks to 3.3 a game.  He's the leader in Defensive Rating (an estimate of points per 100 possessions while player is on the floor) on the team at 103 (along with Josh McRoberts), while everyone else is 106 or more, and the team itself has a Defensive Rating of 106.6, so his impact on that end is definitely being felt when he's in the game.

On offense, he's being a lot more aggressive, looking for his shot more.  It's meant a lower efficiency in terms of Field Goal %, since he's creating more of his offense than he has in the last couple years, but a nice side effect is that he's getting to the line quite a bit (5.8 times a game, up from 2.8 last year) and converting at a high rate (82.9%).  He has an Offensive Rating of 110 so far, higher than Darren Collison and Danny Granger, and about 3 points higher than the Pacers as a team (107.3).  So essentially, when Hibbert is in the game, the Pacers play better on both ends.

I know they don't give rewards in October, but if Hibbert can keep it up, this is your Most Improved Player, and perhaps the driving force behind the Pacers getting back to the Playoffs.

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