Friday, October 8, 2010

2010-11 Season Previews: Houston Rockets

Houston, lets better hope we don't have a problem
The NBA Season is fast upon us, so its time for the Pick and Scroll to begin previewing each team.  We're going to go in order from worst previous record to best.  Let's head on over to China's favorite team, the Houston Rockets.

2009-10 Record: 42-40
Additions: Yao Ming (back from injury), Brad Miller (FA), Patrick Patterson (Draft), Courtney Lee (Trade)
Subtractions: Trevor Ariza, David Andersen


Daryl Morey (Houston's GM) is causing a bit of a stink in not wanting to talk about extensions for any of his players right now, and he's got good reason to.  Houston's future has so much to do with Yao Ming, and whether or not he can remain healthy long enough for a championship run.  If he can, then you look to lock up talent around him and get some more assets.  If not, you want to remain as flexible as possible.

Despite not having Yao last season, the Rockets still managed an above .500 record, playing as a team greater than the Sum of its parts.  Aaron Brooks was the NBA's most improved player (although his increased production was likely just because of increased minutes), and Carl Landry was on pace to become 6th man of the year before he was traded for Kevin Martin.  The Rockets also found a gem late in the draft last year in Chase Budinger.  Luis Scola and Kyle Lowry both had career years for Houston as well, getting nice contracts this summer as a result.

The Rockets also managed to get rid of Tracy McGrady and acquire a wealth of assets.  They lost the super efficient and tough Carl Landry, but they also managed to get the also super efficient Kevin Martin in return, as well as some draft picks, a lottery pick in Jordan Hill, and an expiring contract this year in Jared Jeffries.

This summer the Rockets fixed one of their mistakes from last year in trying to feature Ariza as an offensive player.  He was very inefficient all year (TS% of .488) and he had the lowest offensive rating (99) on the team of the main rotation players.  The Rockets managed to get rid of his contract and get a nice young player in return in Courtney Lee, who is a nice change of pace from Kevin Martin, and also insurance in case Martin continues to be injury prone.

Their other acquisitions were all about solidifying the frontline.  With Yao set to return this season, but on a 24 minutes per game limit, the Rockets got veteran center Brad Miller to act as his backup.  Miller had his best years in Sacramento under Adelman, so this could be a better pickup than expected.  In the draft the Rockets snagged Patrick Patterson, a potential Carl Landry-type replacement off the bench.  Paired up with Jordan Hill, the Rockets have a frontline laden with depth and potential.

This season is all about the big fella though.  The Rockets came close to taking out the Lakers in 2008, losing in 7 games, and if they hadn't lost Yao in Game 3 of that series, it might have gone differently.  Yao is being brought back slowly, but he's a game changer if he can stay healthy.   A lineup of Yao, Scola, Battier, Martin, and Brooks/Lowry (I'm not sold on Brooks as a starting backcourt mate with Martin.  Both of them are defensive sieves) is a lineup not many teams will want to face.

With or without Yao though, this is a deep team, with a coach that knows how to maximize what he has.  I expect this team to make the playoffs either way.  How far they goes depends a lot on health, and a healthy dose of luck.

Projected win range: 45-50

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