Friday, August 13, 2010

Exploring the Worth of the Expiring Contract as an Asset


Yesterday I mentioned in my trade analysis that it is rare nowadays to see a trade be mostly about acquiring basketball talent and not trying to cut salary.

As such, the growing conception in the media is that expiring contracts, that is players with big contracts that expire that year, are very valuable assets for a team to have.  The idea is that teams with expiring contracts can use the contracts themselves to get something they want, like getting under the luxury tax for instance, or grabbing young players with smaller contracts and more potential.

This year's expiring contracts look to be especially attractive according to experts, because the Collective Bargaining Agreement is set to expire and it is widely assumed that more limitations will be placed on teams, and salary will be slashed across the board.

It seems to me though that a lot of these "valuable" contracts don't get traded at all though.  But since I like to be more analytical than "It seems to me", lets take a look at the actual expiring contracts over the last few years and see what's been done with them.  We will be ignoring rookie scale contracts as expiring since those players go on to become Restricted Free Agents, players with Player Options or Early Termination clauses, and also players with salaries less than $3 million as the value of their expiring contracts would not be considered significant enough to trade for (unless a team was really close to being under the tax).

I will warn you now, this is a long article.  If you see an egregious mistake, (there's bound to be at least one I didn't see) let me know and I'll fix it right away.
We'll start by looking at all the expiring contracts that fit my above criteria from the 2007-08 season on.  All salaries were found via ShamSports.com (this should be your go-to website for NBA salaries.  Mark Deeks runs the site and he does an amazing job keeping it accurate and up to date.)  Trade information is found via Basketball-reference.com.

Color Key

  • Players in Blue had their contracts simply expire.
  • Players in Purple re-signed with the same team that they were on before.
  • Players in Green were bought out or waived during the season without being traded.
  • Players in Red were used in Trades.
  • Players in Black are reserved for players in the upcoming season, as what happens with them has yet to be determined.

2007-08:

  • Antawn Jamison, $16.36 million
  • Theo Ratliff, $11.67 million - Traded by Boston with Ryan Gomes, Gerald Green, Al Jefferson, Sebastian Telfair and the draft picks that would become Wayne Ellington and Jonny Flynn to Minnesota for Kevin Garnett.  Ratliff would be waived by the Wolves later that year.
  • Kwame Brown, $9.08 million - Traded by the Los Angeles Lakers with Javaris Crittenton, rights to Marc Gasol, and the draft picks that would become Donté Greene and Greivis Vasquez for Pau Gasol and the pick that would become Devin Ebanks.
  • Jason Williams, $8.94 million
  • Kurt Thomas, $8.1 million - Traded twice.  The first time was from Phoenix with the draft picks that would become Serge Ibaka and Quincy Pondexter to Seattle for the 2nd round pick that would become Emir Preldzic.  Then he was traded from Seattle to the Spurs for Expiring Contracts in Brent Barry and Francisco Elson, as well as the pick that would become Rodrigue Beaubois.
  • Ricky Davis, $6.82 million  - Traded by Minnesota with Mark Blount to the Heat for Antoine Walker, expirings in Michael Doleac and Wayne Simien, and the draft pick that would become Ty Lawson.
  • Sam Cassell, $6.15 million
  • Brent Barry, $5.64 million - See Kurt Thomas.  He was waived by the Sonics almost immediately, and re-signed with the Spurs after 30 days.
  • Eduardo Najera, $4.95 million
  • Derek Fisher, $4.35 million
  • Jamaal Magloire, $4 million
  • Carlos Arroyo, $4 million
  • Gordon Giricek, $4 million - Traded from Utah with the pick that would become Trevor Booker to Philadelphia for Kyle Korver.
  • Pat Garrity, $3.82 million
  • Robert Horry, $3.63 million
  • Keyon Dooling, $3.6 million
  • Tyronn Lue, $3.5 million - Traded from Atlanta with fellow Expiring Contracts Anthony Johnson and Lorenzen Wright, along with Shelden Williams and the draft pick that would become Sean Singletary to Sacramento for Mike Bibby.  Waived by the Kings.
  • Mickael Pietrus, $3.47 million
  • Kevin Ollie, $3.44 million
  • Ira Newble, $3.44 million - Part of a 3 team trade between the Cavs, Bulls, and Sonics.  Cleveland traded Newble along with Donyell Marshall, Drew Gooden, Larry Hughes, Cedric Simmons and Shannon Brown.  Chicago traded Ben Wallace, Joe Smith, the pick that would become Danny Green, and Adrian Griffin.  Seattle traded Wally Szczerbiak and Delonte West.  Newble, Marshall, and Griffin went to Seattle.  Wallace, Smith, Szczerbiak, West and the 2nd round pick went to Cleveland.  Gooden, Hughes, Simmons and Brown went to Chicago.  Newble was waived by the Sonics soon after.
  • Fred Jones, $3.3 million - Part of the trade (along with Dan Dicaku) that sent Zach Randolph from Portland to New York for Steve Francis and Channing Frye.
  • Chris Duhon, $3.25 million
  • Lorenzen Wright, $3.25 million - See Tyronn Lue.
  • Michael Doleac, $3.12 million - See Kurt Thomas.
  • Michael Finley, $3.1 million
  • Matt Barnes, $3 million
  • Francisco Elson, $3 million - See Kurt Thomas.
  • Jake Voskuhl, $3 million


This year had a couple big trades involving expiring contracts.  Theo Ratliff was a big part of the salary that allowed Boston to trade for Kevin Garnett, and Kwame Brown was a big part that allowed Los Angeles to trade for Pau Gasol.  Players like Al Jefferson and picks like Marc Gasol were sweeteners that made the deals go down, but without those big expiring salary contracts, those trades might not have occurred.

Kurt Thomas was another big expiring chip, and Phoenix basically paid Sam Presti in Seattle to take him off their hands(so as to get under the luxury tax) by throwing in a couple of draft picks.  Not done yet, Presti later swapped Thomas again for yet for other expiring contracts as well as another draft pick.

The Hawks and Kings saw another deal occur with a lot of expiring contracts.  The Hawks needed a point guard and gave the Kings a lot of expiring contracts as well as a tryout of former lottery pick Shelden Williams for Bibby.  The Kings got some financial flexibility even if Williams never panned out, and the Hawks got the point guard they wanted to take them into the playoffs.

2008-09:

  • Jason Kidd, $21.37 million
  • Allen Iverson, $20.84 million - Traded by Denver to Detroit for Chauncey Billups, Antonio McDyess and Cheikh Samb.
  • Stephon Marbury, $20.84 million
  • Shawn Marion, $17.81 million - Traded by Miami with Mike James for Jamario Moon, Jermaine O'Neal and the draft pick that would become Da'Sean Butler.
  • Mike Bibby, $14.98 million
  • Lamar Odom, $14.15 million
  • Rasheed Wallace, $13.93 million
  • Wally Szczerbiak, $13.78 million
  • Raef LaFrentz, $12.72 million
  • Andre Miller, $10.33 million
  • Rasho Nesterovic, $8.4 million - Traded by Toronto with Maceo Baston, T.J. Ford, and Roy Hibbert to Indiana for Nathan Jawai and Jermaine O'Neal.
  • Malik Rose, $7.65 million - Traded by New York to Oklahoma City for Chris Wilcox.
  • Ron Artest, $7.4 million - Traded by the Sacramento Kings with Sean Singletary and Patrick Ewing, Jr. to the Houston Rockets for Bobby Jackson, Donté Greene, and the pick that would become Omri Casspi.
  • Drew Gooden, $7.15 million - Traded by the Chicago Bulls with Andres Nocioni, Michael Ruffin, and Cedric Simmons for Brad Miller and John Salmons.  Bought out by  the Kings after 1 game.
  • Hedo Turkoglu, $6.86 million
  • Marquis Daniels, $6.86 million
  • Chris Wilcox, $6.75 million - See Malik Rose
  • Ben Gordon, $6.4 million
  • Jason Collins, $6.2 million - Traded by Memphis with Brian Cardinal, Kevin Love and Mike Miller to Minnesota for Greg Buckner, Marko Jaric, O.J. Mayo and Antoine Walker.
  • Anderson Varejao, $5.78 million
  • Bobby Jackson, $6.49 million
  • Stromile Swift, $6.2 million
  • Desmond Mason, $5.3 million - Part of a 3 team trade between the Thunder, Bucks, and Cavaliers.  Milwaukee traded Mason and Mo Williams.  Oklahoma City traded Luke Ridnour and Adrian Griffin.  Cleveland traded Joe Smith and Damon Jones.  Williams went to Cleveland; Griffin, Jones and Ridnour went to Milwaukee; Mason and Smith went to Oklahoma City.
  • Joe Smith, $4.8 million - See Desmond Mason.  Later waived by the Thunder and re-signed with Cleveland for remainder of season.
  • Anthony Parker, $4.55 million
  • Damon Jones, $4.46 million - See Desmond Mason.
  • Zaza Pachulia, $4 million
  • Robert Swift, $3.58 million
  • Charlie Villanueva, $3.45 million
  • Shelden Williams, $3.4 million - Traded by Sacramento with Bobby Brown to Minnesota for Calvin Booth and Rashad McCants.
  • Channing Frye, $3.16 million


Joe Dumars in Detroit definitely had his eye on Free Agency in 2009 and tried to create as much cap space as possible for it, and so traded Chauncey Billups and others for Allen Iverson's expiring.  The Iverson experiment didn't go that well, but it wasn't meant as a long term move, which showed as Detroit showed no interest in Iverson after his contract expired.  The move was great for Denver though as Billups revitalized a Nuggets team and carried them into the Western Conference Finals.

Marbury was another huge expiring contract, but New York's hands were sort of tied when it came to Marbury as nobody wanted to touch him.  Instead of trying to put up with him or continuing to try to trade him, the Knicks simply bought him out to save some money.

Miami was even then looking towards 2010, so acquiring a big deal like O'Neal's didn't hurt their long term plan, and they needed a Center anyway.  Toronto realized O'Neal wasn't the answer to their frontcourt  problems and basically managed to avoid paying him that extra year by trading him for Marion.

Speaking of Toronto, they thought that Jermaine O'Neal would help give them a nice defensive presence in the middle next to Bosh, and traded their big chip in Nesterovic to Indiana along with T.J. Ford (a player Indiana wanted at the time) and the rights to Roy Hibbert (the player most people feel is the future at Center for Indiana. I'm not convinced yet).

The Kings continued to bring on the rebuild, this time trading their best player in Ron Artest for an expiring contract (and hometown hero) in Bobby Jackson, as well as Donté Greene and the eventual rights to Omri Casspi.  The Kings did this to rid themselves of the headache that was Artest off the floor, and the fact that it was unlikely he would re-sign with Sacramento when his time was up (a good call, as he bolted Houston for Los Angeles despite a tough series against the Lakers).  The Kings also saved a little money and to get promising young players in Greene and Casspi.  The trade worked well for Houston at the time as well, as Artest helped them get past the 1st round for the first time in many years.

The Kings were not yet done blowing up the foundation just yet, and with the ownership in financial straits they traded Brad Miller and John Salmons (both of who had multiple years left) to Chicago for expiring contracts in Drew Gooden, Michael Ruffin, and Cedric Simmons, as well as acquire Andres Nocioni.  The trade helped the Bulls make the playoffs and take the Celtics to 7 games in an epic first round series, and it saved the Kings a lot of money.

Presti was re-building as well, and traded away Luke Ridnour's remaining contract for expirings in Mason and Smith.  This would allow the franchise more flexibility as well as open up the path for Russell Westbrook to take the reins at the point guard position.


2009-10:

  • Tracy McGrady, $23.24 million - Part of a 3 team deal between Sacramento, Houston, and New York.  Houston traded Carl Landry and Joey Dorsey.  Sacramento traded Kevin Martin, Hilton Armstrong, and Sergio Rodriguez.  New York traded Jordan Hill, Jared Jeffries, Tracy McGrady, Larry Hughes, a swap of 2011 1st round picks, and a 2012 1st round draft pick.  Houston received Kevin Martin, Hilton Armstrong, Jared Jeffries, Jordan Hill, the right to swap 1st round picks with New York in 2011, and New York's 2012 1st round pick.  Sacramento received Carl Landry, Joey Dorsey, and Larry Hughes.  New York received Tracy McGrady and Sergio Rodriguez.
  • Jermaine O'Neal, $23.02 million
  • Shaquille O'Neal, $21 million - Traded by Phoenix to Cleveland for Sasha Pavlovic, Ben Wallace and the draft pick that would become Dwayne Collins.
  • Ray Allen, $18.78 million
  • Joe Johnson, $14.98 million
  • Ben Wallace, $14 million - See Shaquille O'Neal.  Bought out by the Suns for $10 million and then signed with the Pistons.
  • Larry Hughes, $13.43 million - See Tracy McGrady.  Bought out by the Kings soon after.
  • Carlos Boozer, $12.32 million
  • Brad Miller, $12.25 million
  • Zydrunas Ilgauskas, $11.54 million - Part of a 3 team deal between Washington, Los Angeles Clippers, and Cleveland.  Cleveland traded Ilgauskas, the rights to Emir Preldzic, and the pick that would become Lazar Haywood to Washington.  Los Angeles traded Sebastian Telfair to Cleveland and Al Thornton to Washington.  Washington traded Antawn Jamison to Cleveland and Drew Gooden to Los Angeles.  Ilgauskas was waived by the Wizards soon after and re-signed with the Cavs after 30 days, causing a bit of controversy along the way.
  • Bobby Simmons, $11.24 million
  • Al Harrington, $10.03 million
  • Mike Miller, $9.78 million - Traded by Minnesota with Randy Foye to Washington for Oleksiy Pecherov, Darius Songaila, Etan Thomas, and the draft pick that would become Ricky Rubio.
  • Marcus Camby, $9.15 million - Traded by Los Angeles to Portland for Steve Blake and Travis Outlaw.
  • Kenny Thomas, $8.78 million
  • Quentin Richardson, $8.7 million - Traded 4(!) times.  Traded by New York to Memphis for Darko Milicic.  Then traded by Memphis to Los Angeles for Zach Randolph.  Then traded by Los Angeles to Minnesota for Mark Madsen, Craig Smith and Sebastian Telfair.  Finally traded to Miami for Mark Blount.
  • Etan Thomas, $7.91 million - See Mike Miller.  Traded again a month later with the draft picks that would become Dexter Pittman and Magnum Rolle to Oklahoma City for Chucky Atkins and Damien Wilkins.
  • Darko Milicic, $7.54 million - See Quentin Richardson.  Traded again near the deadline to Minnesota for Brian Cardinal and cash considerations.
  • Udonis Haslem, $7.1 million
  • David Lee, $7 million
  • Brian Cardinal, $6.75 million - See Darko Milicic.  Waived by New York shortly after and re-signed with Minnesota a month later. Like a version of the Ilgauskas scenario that nobody gave a crap about.
  • Tony Battie, $6.61 million - Traded by Orlando with Courtney Lee and Rafer Alston to New Jersey for Ryan Anderson and Vince Carter.
  • Jerome James, $6.6 million
  • Matt Harpring, $6.5 million - Traded by Utah with Eric Maynor to Oklahoma City for the rights to Peter Fehse.  Waived by Oklahom City later that year.
  • Luke Ridnour, $6.5 million
  • Mike James, $6.32 million
  • Chris Duhon, $6.03 million
  • Brendan Haywood, $6 million - Traded by Washington with Caron Butler and DeShawn Stevenson to Dallas for Drew Gooden, Josh Howard, Quinton Ross, and James Singleton.
  • Raymond Felton, $5.5 million
  • Raja Bell, $5.25 million - Traded by Charlotte with Vladimir Radmanovic for Stephen Jackson and Acie Law.
  • Speedy Claxton, $5.21 million - Traded by Atlanta with Acie Law to Golden State for Jamal Crawford.
  • Kyle Korver, $5.16 million
  • Derek Fisher, $5.05 million
  • Nate Robinson, $5 million - Traded by New York with Marcus Landry to Boston for J.R. Giddens, Bill Walker, Eddie House and a future 2nd round pick.
  • Drew Gooden, $4.58 million - See Brendan Haywood and Zydrunas Ilgauskas.
  • Trenton Hassell, $4.35 million
  • Rafer Alston, $4.3 million - See Tony Battie.  Released by New Jersey in January and then signed with Heat before leaving the team unexpectedly.
  • Kwame Brown, $4 million
  • Steve Blake, $4 million - See Marcus Camby
  • Rasual Butler, $3.95 million - Traded by New Orleans for a future 2nd round pick.
  • Amir Johnson, $3.94 million - Traded by Milwaukee with Sonny Weems to Toronto for Carlos Delfino and Roko Ukic.
  • Kurt Thomas, $3.8 million - Traded by San Antonio with Bruce Bowen and Fabricio Oberto to Milwaukee for Richard Jefferson.
  • Roger Mason, $3.78 million
  • Steven Hunter, $3.7 million - Traded by Denver with cash considerations and a future 2nd round pick to Memphis for the pick that would become Dominique Jones.
  • Damien Wilkins, $3.63 million - See Etan Thomas.
  • Travis Outlaw, $3.6 million - See Marcus Camby.
  • Brian Cook, $3.5 million
  • Brian Scalabrine, $3.41 million
  • Matt Bonner, $3.26 million
  • Hakim Warrick, $3 million - Traded by Milwaukee with Joe Alexander and the draft pick that would become Kevin Seraphin to Chicago for John Salmons, the draft pick that would become Larry Sanders, and 2nd round picks in 2011 and 2012.


This was a big year for the movement of expiring contracts, and it has a lot to do with teams trying to clear cap space for the summer of LeBron, as well as teams simply wanting to cut salary.

Tracy McGrady was a malcontent in Houston, and many didn't think he could be traded.  But New York desired his huge expiring contract, and also wanted to clear up some more space by getting rid of Jared Jeffries.  Houston GM Daryl Morey saw that and took advantage, swapping McGrady for Jeffries, but also getting a promising rookie big man in Jordan Hill (New York's 8th pick that year), the right to swap picks this year (and New York is probably going to have a worse record than Houston this year), and New York's 1st rounder in 2012.  That's quite a big haul for the uselessness that was T-Mac.  And Jeffries is now himself an expiring contract that can be used by Morey to acquire an asset.

Jermaine O'Neal wasn't traded because there was no point for Miami. The plan was to have space for 2010.  Having O'Neal gave them a lot of that. And it worked.

The better O'Neal was shipped from Phoenix, where his presence slowed down the team, and as such mitigated their effectiveness in a salary dump to Cleveland, who mistakenly believed O'Neal's presence would help them defeat a team like Orlando (when instead they couldn't get past Boston).  It was still a decent deal for Cleveland though, as they gave up two almost useless players in Pavlovic in Wallace for O'Neal and his contract expired in case James left (which he did, if you haven't heard).  The Suns saved some money by buying out Wallace and waiving Pavlovic, and the team was once again able to revert to its run-and-gun ways without O'Neal slowing the pace.

In another attempt to get LeBron help (which didn't work) the Cavs traded Ilgauskas for Jamison, which was even better for them since Ilgauskas was bought out by Washington to save some money on their end, and re-signed with Cleveland anyway.  For Washington this was all about saving money.  With team morale really low because of the Arenas situation, it was definitely time to blow up the team.  Trading Jamison for almost nothing saved the Wiz from paying him for the next two years, while opening up the development for Andray Blatche.  Trading Haywood was sweetener for trading Butler as well, and they got all expiring contracts back.  It was a definite talent upgrade for Dallas, who had been struggling at the time.

Quentin Richardson was seemingly traded every other day in the summer of 2009.  First was a straight swap of expirings for New York, who wanted to try Darko Milicic at the center next to David Lee (that didn't work out).  Then he was sent to Los Angeles for Zach Randolph (a trade the Clippers were all too willing to take as Randolph was a malcontent, locked up for a while, and would've inhibited the growth of #1 pick Blake Griffin), while it gave Memphis enough salary to put them over the minimum amount (yes Memphis was that low in salary last year) as well as give them a low post threat and great rebounder in Randolph (who surprisingly had a great season for Memphis this year. At least on the court.)  Richardson was not through yet though, as he was traded to Minnesota in a money saving deal for the Wolves, and then by the Wolves to save some more money.

Presti is all about accumulating assets, and so dealt for Etan Thomas and a couple second round picks for a couple of expirings of his own in Atkins and Wilkins.  He also helped the Jazz get under the luxury tax by taking Matt Harpring's contract and promising young rookie Eric Maynor for the rights to a guy who will never play in the NBA.  The Jazz saved some money, and the Thunder got their possible backup of the future to Russell Westbrook.

New York soured on Darko and it was up to Kahn to give him a chance.  Minnesota swapped Brian Cardinal for Darko (I'm not lying when I say this is a talent upgrade for Minnesota), and they seemed to like the move (re-signing Darko for 4 years, $20 million).  New York just saved some money.

Charlotte needed an offensive threat and Golden State needed to get rid of crazy Cap'n Jack, who had been stirring up trouble within the organization.  The trade rid the Warriors of Jackson's presence (and saved some money), and it gave the Bobcats a threat in the backcourt, and helped them get a playoff berth for the first time in franchise history.  Golden State had previously saved money by trading high scoring guard Jamal Crawford to Atlanta for expirings in Claxton and Law.  Crawford went on to become 6th man of the year for Atlanta.

With Hedo Turkoglu on the way out and needing another threat on the wings to try to get back into the NBA Finals, the Magic bet it all on Vince Carter, using expirings like Battie and Alston, as well as swapping young guys in Lee and Anderson.  This put the Nets into full rebuild mode, and although it didn't put the Magic over the top, they'll get another chance next year, as Carter's on the books for two more years.

In a bit of a headscratcher, the Clippers traded Marcus Camby (who had been very good for them all year) in a straight expiring swap for Steve Blake and Travis Outlaw, a move that only saved them about $1.55 million (Ha! Only. I wish I had that type of money, but in NBA terms, its miniscule).  Meanwhile Camby provided a much needed spark for Portland's depleted frontcourt and even re-signed with them to a lucrative 2 year deal.  The Clippers also acquired an expiring in Rasual Butler from New Orleans basically for free, in order to help New Orleans get under the tax (a common theme in New Orleans' trades).

The Bucks and Raptors agreed to a swap of Amir Johnson and Sonny Weems for Delfino and Ukic, and it seems to have worked out alright for both teams.  Delfino was huge for the Bucks last year, and Johnson and Weems look to be parts of the Raptors future.  The Bucks still needed an extra push though, and thought John Salmons could be the key, and gave up expirings in Warrick and Alexander, as well as some picks.  Salmons helped carry the Bucks into the playoffs, and ended up re-signing with the team.  The Bucks had also wanted to get rid of the contract of Richard Jefferson before the season, and found a taker in San Antonio, who thought he could fill their void at SF.  Milwaukee got only expiring contracts back for Jefferson, who disappointed in San Antonio.


2010-11:

  • Michael Redd, $18.3 million
  • Andrei Kirilenko, $17.82 million
  • Yao Ming, $17.69 million
  • Zach Randolph, $17.67 million
  • Kenyon Martin, $16.55 million
  • Jason Richardson, $14.44 million
  • Peja Stojakovic, $14.26 million
  • Tony Parker, $13.5 million
  • Samuel Dalembert, $13.43 million - Traded by Philadelphia to Sacramento for Spencer Hawes and Andres Nocioni.
  • Erick Dampier, $13.1 million (last season is fully unguaranteed if he is waived before season) - Traded by Dallas with Eduardo Najera and Matt Carrol to Dallas for Tyson Chandler and Alexis Ajinca.
  • Tyson Chandler, $12.6 million - See Erick Dampier.
  • Troy Murphy, $11.97 million - Part of a 4 team trade between Indiana, New Jersey, New Orleans, and Houston.  Indiana trades Murphy to New Jersey; New Orleans trades Darren Collison and James Posey to Indiana; New Jersey trades Courtney Lee to Houston; Houston trades Trevor Ariza to New Orleans.
  • Eddy Curry, $11.28 million
  • Tayshaun Prince, $11.15 million
  • Mike Dunleavy, $10.56 million
  • Caron Butler, $10.56 million
  • Jamal Crawford, $10.1 million
  • T.J. Ford, $8.5 million
  • Shane Battier, $7.35 million
  • Dan Gadzuric, $7.25 million - Traded by Milwaukee with Charlie Bell to Golden State for Corey Maggette and the draft pick that would become Jerome Jordan.
  • Jared Jeffries, $6.88 million
  • Vladimir Radmanovic, $6.88 million
  • Nazr Mohammed, $6.88 million
  • J.R. Smith, $6.76 million
  • Nick Collison, $6.75 million
  • Morris Peterson, $6.67 million - Traded by New Orleans with the rights to Cole Aldrich to Oklahoma City for the rights to Craig Brackins and Quincy Pondexter.
  • Jeff Foster, $6.66 million
  • Jason Kapono, $6.64 million
  • Nenad Krstic, $5.54 million
  • Darius Songaila, $4.82 million
  • Joel Przybilla, $4.71 million
  • Kendrick Perkins, $4.64 million
  • DeShawn Steveneson, $4.15 million
  • Sasha Vujacic, $5.48 million
  • Reggie Evans, $5.08 million
  • Marcus Banks, $4.85 million
  • Willie Green, $3.98 million
  • Kelenna Azubuike, $3.3 million - Traded by Golden State with Anthony Randolph and Ronny Turiaf to New York for David Lee (this deal was a sign and trade).
  • Grant Hill, $3.24 million
  • Kris Humphries, $3.2 million
  • Glen Davis, $3 million
  • Jamario Moon, $3 million
  • Chris Wilcox, $3 million
  • Carl Landry, $3 million
  • Josh Howard, $3 million + incentives


This year has already seen a few trades for expirings, with the Sixers using Dalembert to acquire an intriguing prospect at Center in Spencer Hawes, while the Kings get rid of the last two years of Nocioni's contract and get the rim stopper they wanted in Dalembert.

The Bucks thought to add another piece to the puzzle through the use of expiring contracts, and the Warriors wanted to save some money as well with the Maggette trade.  It remains to be see how this will work for Milwaukee, who now have a lot of money tied in a few players.

The Hornets, ever looking to shed salary, gave up their lottery pick to free themselves of Mo-Pete's salary, while the Thunder used some of their acquired assets to move up and grab the young defensive center they wanted, as well as an extra shooter in the backcourt.

Dallas was able to unload Dampier's unique expiring contract for Tyson Chandler, and young big man prospect Alexis Ajinca, as well as getting rid of a bad contract in Matt Carrol.

And as discussed yesterday, Troy Murphy was part of a 4 team trade that netted Indiana their point guard of the future in Darren Collison.

***

After spending all these hours looking at these deals for expiring contracts, I've come to the conclusion that in the right hands, an expiring contract can be a very useful tool for a team.  Oklahoma City's GM Sam Presti seems particularly adept at exploiting the power of the expiring contract, and his team has profited from this.

In the upcoming season, I expect there might be more movement of expiring contracts than ever, as teams try to prepare for the upcoming CBA, expected to cut salaries across the board.  A few teams stand out to me to be in a position of strength this year when it comes to Expiring Contracts:

Indiana: Indiana already has taken advantage of one of their expirings in Troy Murphy, but they also have the contracts of Mike Dunleavy and TJ Ford.  Even if the Pacers don't deal those two, they'll be one of the most financially flexible teams next year, with about $35 million committed in salary.

Memphis: Memphis will be having Zach Randolph as an expiring contract, and even if they just let him expire, they'll still have just $33.1 million committed in salary.

Oklahoma City: Sam Presti has done an absolutely stunning job at keeping his financial flexibility, and with expirings like Collison, Peterson and Krstic, the Thunder will be sitting at only $34 million in salary next year.  This all depends on how much of or even if Jeff Green gets an extension.

Sacramento: Kings GM Geoff Petrie has also done a fantastic job at making his team financially flexible, as the Kings currently sit at the most cap room of any team (about $15 million), and also only have $28 million in committed salary next year.

And these are the teams that are over the Luxury Cap ($70.3 million).  Teams pay a dollar for every dollar they are over the luxury tax, so you can see why so many teams try to get under it.  Not just that, but the money from the tax is pooled and given to all the teams that were under it after the season.:

Boston: About $13 million over.
Charlotte: About $8 million over. They could get under by waiving Erick Dampier.
Dallas: About $14.2 million over.
Denver: About $13.4 million over.
Houston: About $8.2 million over.
Lakers: About $21.6 million over.
Orlando: About $22.3 million over.
Portland: About $2.5 million over.
Utah: About $5 million over.

Expiring Contracts vary in value.  It depends on the situation and the GM.  But handled the right way, they can be extremely valuable as assets.

1 comment:

  1. Aykis - phenomenal piece of research. Two minor quibbles, first while Ben Wallace was way overpriced at $14 million and as I recall was bought out by the Suns for $10 million (?) he's been Detroit's most productive player since resigning with them for the vets minimum or something close to it and has been far from useless.

    Secondly, Spencer Hawes an "intriguing prospect"? Please, he's not on the Kings anymore, you can stop pretending. Where's the (sarcasm)?

    As I scrolled down your list of expirings and keeping a running total in my mind (while rounding up and down) it looks like there are about $200 million in expiring contracts and $100 million in salaries over the lux tax threshold, seemingly a perfect match.

    Well it seems like a perfect match until you take Charlotte off your list because they are going to waive Dampier and even if they resign him likely won't pay the luxury tax. In my opinion, Boston, Dallas, Lakers and Orlando are not overly worried about paying the luxury tax and while they may not be above trading for an expiring contract are also not really sweating it either.

    Removing these 5 teams and their $78 million in excess salary from the roughly $100 million means that there is a real imbalance between the value of expiring contracts ($200 million) and the remaining excess salary ($22 million)of teams that would probably really like to get off the tax paying list.

    While I agree with your conclusion that expiring contracts can be a valuable asset I think that the real issue this season is that there are more expiring contracts available than there will be a market for them.

    If my math and underlying assumptions are correct (doubtful on the math) I think this could mean that for this season at least, that expiring contracts will not have the same asset value as they have in the past. It's quite likely that some of the teams with material expiring contracts will not have the trade asset they thought they had and will simply have to let the contracts expire which will not reduce their salary for tax purposes or bring back players in return. Or not.

    Interesting times.

    Bluejohn

    ReplyDelete